As hyperscaler marketplaces and AI reshape sourcing and delivery, vendors prioritizing equity over scale will capture higher margins and stronger partner ROI.
By Larry Walsh
A new year is upon us. The turning of the calendar brings a clean slate for all and a rich new set of opportunities and challenges. For many of us in the channel, January also marks the season of sales kickoffs, the execution of strategies ratified earlier, and the pursuit of new accomplishments.
The past few years have been challenging, to say the least. While artificial intelligence drove momentum and injected capital in the global IT market, most other product and service categories struggled to produce durable growth. In 2025, multiple analyst firms sized global IT spending growth near 9% to 11%, with 60% or more of incremental investment tied directly to AI infrastructure, cloud compute for AI workloads, and data center modernization. The global IT market grew about 10% — an astonishing rate under most circumstances — but most of that growth went into AI and data center development.
Channel expectations for equal growth remain unchanged. Partners last year told Channelnomics they expected sales volume, revenue, and profits to climb 10% to 14%. As per the Channelnomics Partner Confidence Index (PCI), confidence declined consistently through 2025, yet, by year’s end, more than 80% of partners still believed that revenue and profitability would rise. Channel chiefs reported similar expectations for performance gains from indirect-sales motions, reflecting continued optimism despite uneven fundamentals.
On the surface, this resembles a recipe for success. And, to some extent, that’s true. Channelnomics forecasts global channel growth of 5% to 7% in 2026, driven primarily by continued AI investment and durable demand for IT support services. Hardware sales, especially endpoint devices, will continue to lag, weighed down by buyer consolidation and weaker refresh cycles. Software and subscriptions will see uneven performance as businesses reduce discretionary subscription spending, rationalize vendor counts, and consolidate on platforms rather than expand best-of-breed environments.
The indirect-sales model — going to market with and through partners — remains the most economical route to reach and serve customers. Channelnomics estimates that channel sales deliver 10% to 15% higher profitability than direct sales, driven by lower fixed costs to serve, partner-owned technical benches, localized delivery, aggregated demand through distribution, and ecosystem attach motions that direct sales often fail to monetize at comparable rates. Leveraging distributors and partners for customer support rather than carrying large internal technical or professional services benches provides vendors with meaningful cost containment, improved renewal rates, and stronger account expansion outcomes.
Customers are showing signs of changing preferences. Over the past year, Channelnomics observed increased adoption of marketplaces as a primary technology sourcing channel. Buyers — particularly younger influencers and decision-makers — exhibit greater wariness toward traditional sales contracts and direct engagement motions, conditioned to trust self-service channels such as marketplaces, search engines, and digital influencers. AI-driven discovery and peer validation loops increasingly influence final procurement decisions.
Marketplace momentum is now measurable. Hyperscaler marketplaces grew by more than 40% year over year in partner-led software transactions in 2025, while traditional partner-sourced endpoint hardware remained flat or declined by 2% to 4% across regions. Younger IT buyers demonstrated a 20% or greater propensity to complete B2B software purchases in hyperscaler marketplaces rather than through traditional reseller contracts, a trend driven by procurement speed, usage-based billing, and digital validation loops.
Over the next five years, marketplaces — particularly those operated by hyperscalers — will become the dominant sourcing hubs for SMB and midmarket buyers. Service providers and integrators will increasingly occupy the role of secondary sellers but primary resources for implementation, adoption, and lifecycle ownership.
This shift has been in the works for some time and continues to accelerate. Over the past two years, Channelnomics received a steady stream of inquiries about engaging digital sales teams, balancing traditional and marketplace partner motions, and delivering high-quality support to customers sourcing through hyperscalers. Marketplaces will not fully displace the traditional two-tier channel in the near term. Still, they will continue capturing a larger share of influence and wallet by meeting customers where they are.
What will become increasingly important in 2026 is engagement and empowerment. Channel leaders need to recognize that Darwinism is alive and well. While the average partner is reinvesting in its business to improve capacity and optimize operations, only 5% are truly leaning into future technology and market trends, with another 10% to 15% on the cusp. The remainder continue to capitalize on legacy investments, extracting value from installed bases while deferring meaningful transformation.
Smart channel teams will increasingly refocus on progressive partners that align with evolving market demands, shifting legacy partners to a maintenance or “run” model rather than seeing them as a growth engine. This approach runs counter to conventional wisdom around cultivating growth from the so-called “long tail.” It acknowledges a harsher economic reality: Underperforming partners are too costly to elevate at scale, and mass enablement rarely yields proportional return.
Maximizing partners’ potential requires reorienting expectations and rebalancing commitments. Vendors that choose equity — where all parties in the go-to-market chain benefit from outcomes — over capitalization — where vendors constrain partner upside — will win in 2026 and beyond. Channelnomics calls this Channel Positive: the pursuit of equity that increases total economic impact (TEI) for partnerships and improves return on channel investment (ROCI).
In keeping with its sharper focus on channel attribution, ROCI, and TEI in 2026, Channelnomics is already working with several vendors to rebalance partnership economics, translate Channel Positive into actionable programs, and implement change management to unify all sides of the channel go-to-market chain into more fluid, positive motion.
Channelnomics will provide more details and insights on the Channel Positive model in the weeks and months ahead. Keep an eye out for updates and new reports.
It promises to be an exciting year, with new technologies, new models, and new ways to evaluate indirect-channel economics. Channelnomics believes that vendors adopting the Channel Positive position will be the bigger winners in 2026 and beyond.
For more information about Channel Positive and other Channelnomics services, send e-mail to info@channelnomics.com.
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Larry Walsh is the CEO, chief analyst, and founder of Channelnomics. He’s an expert on the development and execution of channel programs, disruptive sales models, and growth strategies for companies worldwide.
