The Q4 Channelnomics Partner Confidence Index finds partners forecasting revenue up 9.6% and profit up 9.5%, even as macroeconomic pressure makes them wary of reinvesting.
By Larry Walsh
Partner confidence is shaken going into the final quarter of 2026, but the channel still expects positive, albeit muted, growth for the full calendar year.
According to the fourth-quarter installment of the Channelnomics Partner Confidence Index (PCI), partners expect their revenue to grow around 9.6% and their profits to increase 9.5%. The expectations are down slightly from what partners have been telegraphing all year, which was 10% to 14%.
Channelnomics never expected to see double-digit growth. Asking partners about revenue and profit growth expectations is more of a barometer reading than a forecast. Partners typically overstate their growth expectations, often aligning with goals rather than what’s happening on the ground. The higher the expectation, though, the higher the actual growth will be.
Roughly one-third of partners in North America and Europe expect their revenue and profit growth to land between 6% and 9%. Channelnomics pegged its forecast following the second half at 6% to 8% for North America and 5% to 7% for Europe. (Channelnomics currently doesn't measure the other regions.)
Now, 6% to 9% growth is nothing to sneeze at, even though Gartner and other market analyst firms believe the overall tech market will increase at least 10% this year. While artificial intelligence and related products continue to generate billions in sales, many product categories are making up for unit shipment declines by increasing prices.
In the report, partners across both regions cite inflation and interest rates as two of the major culprits behind their anxiety. Rising operating costs are diverting money from other customer investments, which is dampening sales. The same issue is affecting how much partners can reinvest in their businesses.
In both North America and Europe, partners’ confidence in their ability to effectively reinvest in their businesses dipped in the fourth quarter. It’s not that they aren’t reinvesting; rather, it’s that they’re worried about making investments that fail to generate positive returns and leave their balance sheets awash in red ink.
In conversations Channelnomics has had with partners around the world, they consistently say they lack insight into what they should be doing next with their businesses. Yes, they know AI is important, and more than 60% are investing in AI capabilities and services. But what they want from their vendors is more insight into market opportunities and how to effectively capitalize on them.
Partners lament that vendors and analysts too often talk about new moneymaking opportunities in broad strokes and grand gestures. What partners need is direction on real opportunities, cost to serve, time to value, and probable (realistic) return potential. Without this information, partners often run down dead ends that cost them money and time.
Some vendors may say that partners should do the research to uncover the data — that it’s their responsibility to conduct their own due diligence on the opportunities presented to them. And, in doing so, partners may discover opportunities that are unknown to the vendors.
This is a great example of two things being true at the same time.
Yes, partners are responsible for plotting their own business development, but if they’re to be successful, they need to know what vendors are developing and the opportunities they’re chasing so they can align. Without that transparency and alignment, vendors and partners will find themselves out of sync.
Now, let’s go back to the issue of declining partner confidence. We could attribute much of it to geopolitical and macroeconomic trends, but it’s not just that. Historically, partner confidence dips in the final three months of the year as there’s less time and opportunity to hit numbers. Everyone knows that when the calendar flips to Jan. 1 of a new year, we’re back to zero.
If vendors want to set up partners for greater success, they need to start providing insight and clarity into what partners can and should be doing to improve their businesses, align with vendor goals and priorities, and deliver better customer experiences and investment outcomes.
More insights are available in the Q4 PCI reports for North America and Europe. These are complimentary to members of the Channelnomics IQ program (soon to be Channelnomics Priority Access). If you’re interested in receiving a summary version of the PCI reports, contact us at info@channelnomics.com.
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Larry Walsh is the CEO, chief analyst, and founder of Channelnomics. He’s an expert on the development and execution of channel programs, disruptive sales models, and growth strategies for companies worldwide.
