The Channelnomics Channel Chief Outlook 2025 report reveals that channel chiefs and program managers express continued confidence in their partners despite disruptions from tariffs and the escalating global trade war.
At the beginning of 2025, the tech industry and channel were riding a wave of momentum from the rebound of the previous year. Artificial intelligence was opening new sales opportunities through smarter applications and the need for infrastructure refreshes to support this proliferating technology.
Despite signs of a slowing U.S. economy and stagnant growth in much of the world, vendors and channel partners remained optimistic. Channel partners anticipated customer spending to increase by 10% to 14% and, correspondingly, expected their revenue to grow by a similar margin. Unsurprisingly, channel chiefs told Channelnomics they were forecasting the same.
Then came the Trump tariffs and the re-ignition of a global trade war, disrupting pricing models and injecting uncertainty into the global economy. While many technology tariffs are currently on hold — and reciprocal tariffs aren't set to take effect until July — the tech market faces a vastly different landscape now than it anticipated in January.
However, vendors aren’t abandoning the channel. If anything, they’re embracing it.
According to the newly published Channelnomics Channel Chief Outlook 2025, channel chiefs and program managers express confidence that indirect revenue generated by resellers, integrators, and managed service providers will increase between 10% and 14% over 2024 levels. That optimism was backed by investment, with nearly half of vendors reporting increased budgets for partner training, incentive programs, and automation infrastructure.
One important caveat: The Channelnomics survey was conducted a week before the Trump administration announced the tariffs and initiated the trade war. Since then, many vendors have told Channelnomics they’re developing contingency plans to address pricing volatility, cost inflation, and the broader impact of a potential recession. Still, even with the shifting macroeconomic landscape, the core logic behind vendors’ channel strategies remains intact.
The channel is a proven cost-deferment mechanism. As the Channel Recession Survival Guide outlines, indirect sales typically cost 10% to 15% less than equivalent direct transactions. Partners get paid only when they transact, and they bring additional value through customer proximity, technical expertise, and service integration. In downturns, shifting sales and service delivery to partners, rather than expanding fixed-cost internal teams, gives vendors a critical layer of operational flexibility.
That’s not to say vendors are treating the channel as business as usual. Investment is being directed with purpose. Training is prioritized to elevate partner competency, particularly in high-growth areas like AI, cloud services, and cybersecurity. Channel systems are being modernized, focusing on automation, partner segmentation, and co-selling orchestration. Incentive models are shifting from flat discounts to performance-based rewards that better align partner activity with business outcomes.
What makes this moment distinct is how vendors are balancing risk and trust. Instead of scaling back, they're delegating more responsibility to their partners, expanding roles in customer support, service delivery, and demand generation. This reduces internal costs and gives partners a stronger stake in revenue growth and customer retention.
The full impact of the tariffs remains to be seen. But the structural reasons vendors rely on the channel — efficiency, flexibility, and reach — are more relevant than ever. The channel isn't just a fallback for companies seeking resilience in a volatile economy; it’s the forward path.
For more insights into vendors’ expectations for the channel, read the Channel Chief Outlook 2025 report.
Larry Walsh is the CEO, chief analyst, and founder of Channelnomics. He’s an expert on the development and execution of channel programs, disruptive sales models, and growth strategies for companies worldwide.
