Partner Confidence Holds Steady in North America, Plunges in Europe

The U.S.-led war on Iran has disrupted the global economy. European countries are grappling with rising fuel prices and constrained energy supply. The same is true in parts of Asia, where some governments are curtailing work hours to reduce electricity consumption.

In the United States, gas prices are rising, with food prices following. Despite these pressures, the economy remains stable, with growth slowing but not collapsing.

This helps explain why confidence among North American partners remains unchanged heading into the second quarter, while European confidence fell 8.4%, according to the latest Channelnomics Partner Confidence Index (PCI).

North American partner confidence is proving resilient. Many in the channel — including Channelnomics — expected confidence to decline, as it did last year when Trump administration tariffs disrupted product availability and drove price increases. With the war in Iran and rising memory chip prices adding pressure, conditions typically associated with declining confidence are present.

Instead, confidence remains at levels consistent with the third quarter of 2025, following a fourth-quarter dip. North American partners continue to see resilience in the technology market, with expectations for revenue and profit growth through year's end.

In Europe, the situation is different. The channel is in a period of transition. Distributors and partners are diversifying vendor portfolios to reduce reliance on U.S. brands and respond to growing demand for non-American alternatives. At the same time, energy-related supply-chain issues are weighing on economic conditions. The result is a market under pressure from structural change.

Across both regions, partners are investing in new capabilities. The market is being reshaped by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, and partners are positioning themselves to support both legacy demand and emerging opportunities.

In North America, resilience doesn't equate to unchecked optimism. Confidence levels are stable but measured. Partners are prioritizing efficiency over expansion, making targeted investments, and applying greater discipline to hiring, capital allocation, and risk management. The result is a channel that's steady but cautious.

In Europe, including the United Kingdom, the channel is recalibrating. Partners are pursuing growth with a sharper focus on execution, risk management, and adaptability. The market remains fundamentally sound but increasingly shaped by uncertainty, where performance depends on the ability to adjust quickly.

Based on the latest PCI data, Channelnomics is maintaining its 2026 channel growth forecast for North America at 5% to 7%. In Europe, the forecast has been lowered to 3% to 5%, with stronger expectations for 2027.

 The Channelnomics PCI reports for North America and Europe are now available — complimentary to CiQ members and available to purchase for others. For more information, contact info@channelnomics.com.

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