Confidence in Trump-era economic policy is slipping among U.S. and European solution providers as sweeping tariffs trigger warnings of recession and retaliatory trade moves.
At the beginning of the year, the American business community was broadly optimistic about Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Executives anticipated reduced regulations, lower taxes, and less government interference in the private sector. Tariffs, they believed, were a manageable sideshow.
That outlook was reflected in the Channelnomics Partner Confidence Index for the first quarter. American and European solution providers were confident in their 2025 revenue and profitability forecasts, and many expected tariffs imposed by a second Trump administration to benefit their business prospects.
That sentiment is now shifting, especially in Europe. While most American solution providers still view Trump’s tariffs as favorable, that confidence is starting to erode. In Europe, perceptions have flipped, with many providers now seeing trade duties as a threat.
In April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on nearly every country globally, excluding Russia and North Korea, which are already heavily sanctioned. All other nations faced import duties of at least 10%, with some product categories hit with rates between 35% and 145%. A week later, the administration granted a temporary 90-day exemption for most technology products, only to suggest shortly after that tech-related tariffs were still likely.
Even if technology is ultimately excluded, economists warn that the scale of the tariffs could push the United States into a recession and destabilize European and Asian markets. A global slowdown would likely curb consumer and business spending, including IT products and services.
In January, 53% of American solution providers believed Trump’s tariff policies would...
